World Trade Enters Era of Historical Low Long-Term Growth

Declining 10-Year Growth in World Merchandise Trade Since 2016

After decades marked by periods of rapid growth and sharp declines, world merchandise trade has entered a significant long-term slowdown, particularly post-2016. This period reflects structural economic shifts, rising trade tensions, and growing global uncertainties.

Growth Peaks and Historical Events:

·      1973–74 Oil Crisis: A major surge in global trade occurred due to rising commodity and goods prices, triggered by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the oil crisis.

·      Early 1980s Recession: Trade growth peaked around 20% before experiencing a sharp decline.

·      1994–95: The establishment of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and the WTO (World Trade Organization) supported trade stabilization and growth.

·      2000s Surge: China’s accession to the WTO and booming commodity prices fueled a robust expansion in global trade.

·      2008 Global Financial Crisis: Trade growth plummeted sharply in the aftermath of the global economic downturn.

·      2020 COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic caused a further severe contraction in global trade growth.